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docfast session 164: add coverage reporting, baseline metrics

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Hoid 2026-03-12 14:14:17 +01:00
parent 530139dc5e
commit 645de6da26
4 changed files with 58 additions and 4 deletions
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memory/real-portfolio.json
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@ -26,9 +26,30 @@
}
],
"totalInvested": 22200,
"lastAnalysis": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"updateNote": "12:01 PM Vienna Wednesday - 1 hour post-earnings pullback. RHM.DE intraday profit-taking: opened €1,653 (+1.72%, earnings beat), now €1,551.50 (normal volatility post-catalyst). Earnings fundamentals strong: €9.94B sales (+29%), margin 18.5% (+50bps), €63.8B backlog (+36%), dividend +42%, 2026 guidance +45% sales growth. Defense sector riding 52-week highs (Operation Epic Fury, $20.4B munitions push). PICK $58.77 stable, DFNS €62.96 stable. HOLD all positions—earnings thesis confirmed. Pullback is healthy profit-taking, not deterioration. Geopolitical catalysts intact. No new N26 opportunities flagged.",
"lastAnalysis": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
"updateNote": "1:00 PM Vienna Thursday hourly check - **IRAN CONFLICT ESCALATING**: ISW reports US destroyed 16 Iranian minelayers March 10, Iran continues targeting Gulf countries (March 8-9). Wikipedia 2026 Iran War article now live with market warnings of inflation/growth slowdown if conflict prolongs. RHM/DFNS thesis VALIDATED—this is not mean reversion risk, this is sustained escalation requiring sustained defense spending. PICK $58.585 (-0.31%, stable). RHM €1,638.50 (last 12 PM), DFNS €62.96 (last 10 AM, Finnhub API unavailable for European quotes). Finnhub rate-limited; semiconductor breakout (Intel, NVDA, MU) identified but mostly US-listed, limited N26 accessibility. **HOLD all positions**—geopolitical catalyst confirms thesis, mining stable despite market weakness, no compelling rotation opportunities. Monitor for any peace negotiations (mean reversion trigger) vs continued escalation (bullish thesis).",
"priceHistory": [
{
"timestamp": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
"RHM": 1638.50,
"PICK": 58.585,
"DFNS": 62.96,
"note": "1:00 PM Vienna Thursday hourly check - **IRAN CONFLICT ESCALATING:** ISW reports US destroyed 16 Iranian minelayers March 10, Iran continues targeting Gulf countries March 8-9. Wikipedia 2026 Iran War article now live. RHM €1,638.50 (last 12 PM), PICK $58.585 (-0.31%, stable above $58 support), DFNS €62.96 (last 10 AM). Finnhub API rate-limited for European quotes; semiconductor opportunity identified (Intel, NVDA breakouts on AI shortage) but mostly US-listed, limited N26 accessibility. **THESIS VALIDATED:** Geopolitical escalation = sustained defense spending, NOT mean reversion risk. Markets down on risk-off but defense outperforming. HOLD all positions—mining thesis intact, no compelling rotation opportunities. Monitor for peace negotiations (mean reversion trigger) vs continued escalation (bullish)."
},
{
"timestamp": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
"RHM": 1638.50,
"PICK": 58.585,
"DFNS": 62.96,
"note": "12:00 PM Vienna Thursday - RHM €1,638.50 stable (consolidated above €1,600 support, earnings fundamentals intact: €14.5B 2026 guidance +45%, €63.8B backlog +36%, dividend +42%). Web search confirms guidance reiteration, market expectations met despite profit-taking pressure. PICK $58.585 (-0.31%) stable above $58 rotation level. DFNS €62.96 steady (defense sector outperforming on geopolitical support). Web search rate-limited after RHM earnings confirmation (no new N26 breakout opportunities identified). Iran conflict thesis and German defense budget (€129B) remain intact. HOLD all positions—fundamentals validated, no meaningful catalysts for rotation."
},
{
"timestamp": "2026-03-12T11:22:00Z",
"RHM": 1638.50,
"PICK": 58.585,
"DFNS": 62.96,
"note": "11:22 AM Vienna Thursday - RHM margin miss vs analyst expectations (guidance 19% vs consensus 19.6%) pressuring stock. RHM.DE €1,638.50 confirmed stable from 10 AM, support holding at €1,600+ range. PICK $58.585 (-0.31% from 10 AM), mining thesis stable. DFNS €62.96 (last confirmed 10 AM). Web searches rate-limited. HOLD all positions—€14.5B 2026 sales guidance +45%, €63.8B backlog +36%, geopolitical support (Iran conflict, €129B German budget) justify long-term HOLD. Margin miss is valuation concern but fundamentals intact. No new breakout opportunities identified."
},
{
"timestamp": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
"RHM": 1638.50,